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CHANCES OF REVOLUTION.

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A gentleman who had lately been in Algeria, communicated to me another fact, which seemed to me very menacing-that there existed throughout that colony a very general disaffection towards the government. He was surprised at the freedom with which not only civilians, but officers in the army, expressed their conviction that the present state of things in Paris could not last long. The old African soldiers are warmly attached to the family of Orleans, and would gladly exchange the present emperor for a son or grandson of Louis Philippe. These facts show that a defection in the army is by no means impossible.

A popular insurrection in Paris, as I have said, would stand no chance at all against the troops, if they stood firm, and were resolute to put it down. But in the case of a people so impulsive as the French, it is impossible to calculate the effect of a sudden frenzy of the public mind, such as might be provoked by an extreme act of tyranny, the imprisonment of a popular favorite, or in case of foreign war, by the loss of a battle which should be ascribed to the incapacity or mismanagement of the government. Any one of these might cause such an explosion of popular indignation as nothing could withstand.

A manifestation of the national will, so imposing, might paralyze the best troops in the world, even if they were not demoralized before. The people might rush to arms, and the soldiers-not cowed, but awe-struck, might

hesitate to fire upon their own countrymen, and finally, as in 1848, end by going over to their side. In that case this whole magnificent array of defences might be turned against the hand that erected them. I mention these contingencies, not as being very likely to happen, but as by no means impossible. I have seen one revolution in Paris, which came so suddenly and with so little apparent cause, that it has greatly shaken my confidence in the stability of any government in France.

But you will ask, how do the people like this iron rule? Most foreigners can give you no intelligent answer to this question, for the press is muzzled, and Frenchmen do not open their minds to strangers. They do not speak on politics except in private and behind closed doors. But we are not foreigners in Paris. A large acquaintance makes us at home in many French families, and to us they express their opinions more freely. And yet, after hearing all, we are not in a much better position to form a judgment than those who hear none; for the opinions expressed are totally contradictory. We find that every man approves or condemns the imperial rule, just as it happens to affect his private interest, or to cross his old prejudices. The Legitimists of course think there will be no settled order in France until the Bourbons are again seated on the throne; and the Republicans think that there can be no liberty until kings and emperors alike are sent about their business. But interest is even stronger than prejudice.

WILL THE EMPIRE LAST?

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If an artist finds his profession does not flourish, he thinks it is owing to a want of patronage by the court, and this of course dictated by jealousy of his genius. If a tradesman finds his branch of business suffering, he curses the government. On the other hand, those who are prosperous bless the strong hand, which has at last given to France that order which is the first condition of successful industry. A prosperous merchant tells us: "Napoleon is my man. We have made more progress under him in ten years than in fifty years before.” Another who is an employé in a public administration, and who feels that his bread depends on the stability of the government, says, "I would descend into the street to-morrow to fight for him." Another, who is an artist, and a man of letters, cannot bear to hear the name of the Emperor mentioned, and speaks of him with the utmost contempt, always calling him "this parvenu— this fellow whom we have got at the head of affairs!” An American gentleman here, the other day went to his banker, who was probably a legitimist and regretted the old régime, and while there, playfully asked him how he liked the master of France? The old Frenchman's eyes flashed fire, and he fairly trembled with rage as he hissed through his teeth, "They will kill him!"

From these contrary opinions you may judge how difficult it is to form anything like a fair estimate of the public opinion of France. In fact there is no public opinion in France. There are millions of private

opinions, but where there is not free speech and a free press, as in England and America, public opinion cannot exist. The only verdict which the nation has ever given is recorded in its vote. And here the fact stands before the world, that three times has the nation by an immense majority elevated this man to the supreme

power.

From all this you may conclude that nothing is certain in France but uncertainty. And such is the general feeling of the most intelligent and thoughtful observers of affairs. Ask a Frenchman what he thinks of the political prospects of his country, and the answer is generally a significant shrug, and a confession that nothing is certain for a month to come. And yet there is a general impression that there will be no change during the life of the present ruler of France. Such is the prestige which he has obtained for talent and energy, such is the popularity of his name, such the attachment of the army, and such the dread among all classes of the terrible possibilities of another revolution, that I think the vast majority of the nation would prefer to rest secure under his strong hand, rather than plunge into any unknown future.

CHAPTER VII.

THE AMERICAN CHAPEL IN PARIS.

PARIS, July 10, 1858.

ONE of the most pleasant things which has come under our observation in Paris, is the new American chapel, recently erected here, by the generous contributions of a few residents in this city, aided by the liberality of friends at home, chiefly, I believe, in New York, and Boston, and Philadelphia. The want of such a place of worship in the French capital, had long been felt. There were several English churches and chapels, besides that attached to the Embassy. Yet there has not been a single place of worship which could serve as a place of Christian reunion for our countrymen, though thousands of Americans visit Paris every year. But there were many difficulties in the way of its establishment. Of the swarms of our countrymen who annually flock to Paris, the vast majority are merely travellers, who only take this city in their way to Switzerland or Italy. They stay but a few days, lodging in hotels, not long enough to form any acquaintance, or to seek out a Protestant place of worship. Occasionally families come to spend a winter. But of these a large part are in search merely of pleasure and amuse

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