§ 75. Of sagacity in the estimate of individual character. We now proceed to introduce to the consideration of the reader another view of the subject of this chapter, which is exceedingly interesting in itself, besides furnishing an argument deserving of some attention. It is not uncommon to find men who exhibit a sort of quickness or sagacity in the estimate of individual character, which is sometimes described by the phrase, a knowledge of the world, or of human nature. This knowledge is undoubtedly possessed by all persons to some extent, but not unfrequently individuals are found who possess it in a remarkably high degree. In some men it may be said not only to assume the appearance, but even to approximate the nature of a prophetic anticipation or foresight; and when this is the case, it is an acquisition, as no one can be ignorant, of great power and value. The late Mr. Dumont, of Geneva, in his Recollections of Mirabeau, has noticed this ability in one of its more striking forms. Speaking of the political life of that celebrated man, especially in its connexion with his knowledge of men and his political foresight, he goes on to say, "It was by the same instinctive penetration that Mirabeau so easily detected the feelings of the Assembly, and so often embarrassed his opponents by revealing their secret motives, and laying open that which they were most anxious to conceal. There seemed to exist no political enigma which he could not solve. He came at once to the most intimate secrets, and his sagacity alone was of more use to him than a multitude of spies in the enemy's camp. I used sometimes to attribute the severity of his judgments to hatred or jealousy, but it has been justified by succeeding events, and there was not a man of any consequence in the Assembly, the sum of whose conduct did not correspond with the opinion which Mirabeau had formed of him.

"Independently of this natural gift, this intellect of penetration, his life had been so agitated, he had been so tossed upon the sea of human existence, as he

used to say, that he had acquired vast experience of the world and of men. He detected, in a moment, every shade of character; and, to express the result of his observations, he had invented a language scarcely intelligible to any but himself; had terms to indicate fractions of talents, qualities, virtues, or vices-halves and quarters-and, at a glance, he could perceive every real or apparent contradiction. No form of vanity, disguised ambition, or tortuous proceedings could escape his penetration; but he could also perceive good qualities, and no man had a higher esteem for energetic and virtuous characters.”*

It cannot be necessary to add anything to show how this instance, and others like it (for the political history of every age brings to light some men of this stamp), connects itself with and illustrates our subject.

§ 76. Foresight of the conduct of masses of men and nations.

It is not too much to say that we are able not only to predict with a considerable degree of certainty the conduct of individuals in any given circumstances, but we may do the same of whole classes of men, and even nations. Hence the remark which Lord Bacon has somewhere made, and which is strikingly characterized by its poetical as well as its philosophical spirit. "The shepherds of the people," he says, "should understand the prognostics of state tempests; hollow blasts of wind seemingly at a distance, and secret swellings of the sea, often precede a storm."

But we may carry this view into some particulars which are deserving of notice. The results, for instance, of a popular election, if certain data are ascertained, are often considered as settled, even before the day of voting has arrived, although the conclusions thus formed are based in part upon opinions relative to whole classes of men, who differ from each other in their callings, interests, and prejudices.

Again, the speculations in the public or national stocks are very frequently prompted by the opinions * Dumont's Recollections of Mirabeau, chap. xiv.

which those who are engaged in such speculations are able to form of the course which states and nations will take in some future time.

One of the most striking facts, involving the foresight or prescience of the conduct of large masses of men, is the financial estimate which is annually made by governments. It is well known that the amount of property invested in commerce, with the annual returns of revenue to the government, is every year estimated in advance, and with very considerable accuracy, by the treasury departments of all civilized

nations.

Reasoning from what has taken place in times past, we may predict, with a good degree of accuracy, what number of letters will be written and circulated through a nation at any future time. The number of letters is indicated by the amount of postage, and this is a matter which the governments of nations have thought it important to them to ascertain. If a person will take the pains to examine the total receipts. of the Post-office Department of the United States, in the successive years from 1790 to 1830, he will notice, with but few exceptions, and those easily explained, a gradual and very regular increase in the amount; the increase being such as would naturally be expected from the augmentation of the wealth and population of the country.

It would seem, in looking at the statistical tables for this purpose, that in the year 1815 there was an increase decidedly greater than would be naturally expected in ordinary circumstances. But this was probably owing (and equally satisfactory reasons will be found for other equally marked variations) to the recent return of peace with Great Britain, which at once gave a new and expanded impulse to the business transactions of the country.

We presume it will be found also on inquiry, that the number of letters not taken from the subordinate offices, and returned from time to time to the General Post-office, or DEAD LETTERS so called, is nearly the

same from year to year, or varying so as to correspond to the variation in the number of letters received. It is stated by Laplace, that the number of dead letters remaining at and returned from other offices to the Post-office at Paris is, in ordinary times, nearly the same from one year to another. The same thing has been stated of the Dead Letter Office, as it is called, in London.*All these things conclusively evince that the actions of men, whether considered individually or in masses, are not placed beyond the reach of some forms of law, and are not left to mere chance or accident.

§ 77. Proof from the regularity observable in the commission of crime, The Statistics of crime (a painful but very interesting and important view of human nature), as well as all other statistical views which are based upon the occupations and conduct of men, throw light upon this subject. The reader will find valuable information on this matter, besides other sources of information which are constantly multiplying, in the Annual Reports of the American Discipline Society, in the article on the Statistics of Crime in the Encyclopædia Americana, in the Report of Messrs. Beaumont and Toqueville on the Penitentiary System in the United States, and particularly in the valuable work of M. Guerry, entitled Essai sur la Statistique Morale de la France.

It appears from the class of works which have now been specified, that, under certain circumstances, there is in human nature an unquestionable disposition or tendency to crime, to a certain extent. And this tendency is found, by a comparison of the facts which are furnished us in the statistical tables of crime, to be so definite and certain in its results, that one may predict at the beginning of each year what number will be brought before the criminal tribunals; what number will be acquitted; what number will be condemned to death; the number condemned to hard laEdinburgh Review, vol. xxiii.

bour for life or for a term of years; the number condemned to solitary imprisonment; and many things of this kind. For instance, it appears from the statistical tables of crime in France that about one in every four thousand and four hundred of the inhabitants is arraigned at a criminal tribunal. Of the persons thus arraigned, one out of every four, or very nearly in that proportion, is accused of a crime against persons; the others, of crimes against property. Out of one hundred accused, about sixty-one will be regularly found guilty.

If statistical tables should be made of every art, department, and calling in life, of farmers, shoemakers, tailors, merchants, blacksmiths, students, preachers, and all other classes, similar results would be exhibited. That is to say, we could very nearly tell, many years beforehand, in a given place and under certain given circumstances, what number would till the ground, or smite the anvil, or practise the arts of commerce, or pursue other occupations.-It will be noticed that this view of the subject in particular cannot be charged with being merely speculative or conjectural. Statistical tables have already multiplied to such an extent, and in such a variety of forms, that we can speak with great confidence. And the bearing of the argument drawn from this source upon the structure of the human mind, particularly upon that department of the mind which is now under consideration, will readily suggest itself to the reader.

CHAPTER V.

LAWS OF THE WILL INVOLVED IN ITS OWN NATURE. § 78. The doctrine of laws of the will confirmed by consciousness. We now proceed to other views of this interesting subject, which place it in a new and somewhat more definite and specific aspect. If we examine with suitable caution, we shall find that laws of the Will are clearly involved in its own nature. But, before pro